CLEVELAND: The Indians continue to overcome the injuries and obstacles that have made their road through October tougher, and now sit four wins over the Toronto Blue Jays shy of their first trip to the World Series since 1997.
If the series between the Indians and Blue Jays in August is any indication, the ALCS should have plenty of fireworks. The Indians won two out of three, all of which were one-run games. It included Jose Ramirez’s go-ahead home run in the eighth inning on Aug. 21 and Tyler Naquin’s walk-off inside-the-park-home-run two days earlier. It was among the wilder couple of days for the Indians this season, and it included a playoff-like atmosphere in part thanks to the scores of Blue Jays fans that made the trip to Progressive Field. On July 1 in Toronto, the Indians and Blue Jays needed 19 innings to settle the score, a 2-1 Indians win that set the franchise record for consecutive wins at 14. The Indians won four of the seven games during the regular season.
Now, the stakes are raised, and the Indians face a new challenge with their pitching situation in a seven-game series following the injuries to starters Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar.
Lineup
The Blue Jays have a dangerous lineup, and it’s been red hot in the postseason. The Blue Jays have averaged 6.75 runs per game this postseason and have hit 10 home runs in four games, double that of any other team. The heart of the lineup is as lethal as any, led by Josh Donaldson (.284, 37 home runs, 122 RBI), Edwin Encarnacion (.263, 42 home runs, 99 RBI), Jose Bautista and Troy Tulowitzki. Donaldson finished the season fourth in baseball in WAR with 7.6, per FanGraphs. The Indians finished the season with a slight edge in runs scored (777-759). The Indians’ lineup has been balanced this postseason, with contributions coming from different hitters up and down the lineup.
Advantage: Even, though the scales could be tipping toward the Blue Jays.
Rotation
The Blue Jays have a deep, well-rounded rotation. Aaron Sanchez (15-2, 3.00 ERA), left-hander J.A. Happ (20-4, 3.18 ERA) and Marco Estrada (9-9, 3.48 ERA) all had strong seasons, and Marcus Stroman (9-10, 4.37 ERA) wasn’t far behind. The Indians’ pitching situation in this series is much more volatile. Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer and Josh Tomlin will pitch Games 1, 2, and 3. But in Game 4, the Indians have “penciled in” Mike Clevinger, who hasn’t been lengthened out to a full start, to take the mound. The bullpen will have to be taxed on that day, which is more of an issue considering Game 4 comes in the middle of a stretch of three games in three days, all on the road in one of the tougher places to play. Game 4, and how it affects Games 3 and 5, might be the biggest key to the series.
Here are the pitching matchups for the first four games: Game 1 (Kluber v. Estrada); Game 2 (Bauer v. Happ); Game 3 (Tomlin v. Stroman); Game 4 (Sanchez v. Clevinger).
Advantage: Blue Jays.
Bullpen
The Indians have continued to ride their bullpen in the late innings. At times, it was shaky in Game 3, but Andrew Miller, Cody Allen, Bryan Shaw and Dan Otero still stand as one of the strengths of the team. Due to the issues with Game 4, Zach McAllister, Jeff Manship and others will likely be called into the ALCS after not appearing in the ALDS. The Blue Jays’ bullpen is led by talented closer Roberto Osuna, though the Indians had some success against him during the regular season. Jason Grilli, lefty Brett Cecil and Joseph Biagini figure to pitch important innings as well, giving the Blue Jays some depth.
Advantage: Indians.
Bench/manager
The Indians’ bench has been used often and has come through when needed. The platoon advantage has often been in the Indians’ favor. That’s especially true in the outfield, where all five have played key roles down the stretch and into the postseason, namely Lonnie Chisenhall’s three-run home run off of left-hander David Price in Game 2 and Coco Crisp’s two-run home run in Game 3. Tyler Naquin had a two-run single in Game 3 and Brandon Guyer had a three-hit day in Game 2. Indians manager Terry Francona has seemingly pushed all the right buttons in the postseason and holds an edge in experience over Blue Jays skipper John Gibbons.
Advantage: Indians
Prediction
Indians in 7. Both teams are coming off sweeps of terrific teams (Boston Red Sox, Texas Rangers). The Indians have their backs against the wall due to the pitching situation, and a seven-game series will be a different kind of animal for them to tame. But they’ve also torn down every wall in front of them so far. Most didn’t think they’d survive the ALDS, and they responded with a sweep. They’ll likely be the underdogs again, and rightfully so, but they perhaps have earned the right to some benefit of the doubt.
Ryan Lewis can be reached at rlewis@thebeaconjournal.com. Read the Indians blog at www.ohio.com/indians. Follow him on Twitter at www.twitter.com/RyanLewisABJ .